2014 US Senate Poll Tracker: A Dozen Close Races will Determine Control of the US Senate

GOP Would Sieze Senate if Election Were Held Today

 Below are projections for the 2014 US Senate, using the most recent polling data. This will be updated as it becomes available. Most frequently cited polls are Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm, and Harper Polling, a Republican one.

Democratic Seats Not Up for Re-election: 34

Republican Seats Not Up for Re-election: 31

Democratic Seats Flipped: 6/21

Republican Seats Flipped: 0/14

Total Projected Democratic Seats: 49 (-6)

Total Projected Republican Seats: 51 (+6)

*Note: Projection is based solely on recent polling data. Polling data is a mixture of “independent” news sources and, in many cases, partisan firms hired by Republican or Democratic groups. Ties are given to the incumbent party for projection purposes.

electons_small4 2014 US Senate Poll Tracker: A Dozen Close Races will Determine Control of the US Senate

Most Recent Polling Data Used in Projections

AlaskaGOP Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell has a 33%-25% primary lead over Daniel S. Sullivan, the former Alaska Attorney General who is gaining momentum. In the general election, a September poll by Harper Polling had incumbent Mark Begich (D) at a soft 43% and leading the two Republicans by just 1 and 2 points respectively. (No Change)

Arkansas – Democratic firm PPP had Incumbent Mark Pryor (D) in a tie with congressman Tom Cotton in December. A Republican contracted poll had Cotton up 48-41% around the same time. Before that, the Arkansas Poll gave Cotton a 47-46 lead in October. That is two leads and a tie for Cotton. (Flip to R)

Colorado – Democrat Mark Udall is clinging to a low single-digit lead against 2010 Senate runner-up Ken Buck, the clear favorite to win the GOP primary. A PPP December poll had the race with Udall with a 46-42% advantage. (No Change)

Georgia – Democrat Michelle Nunn is the likely Democratic nominee. She ties the leading Republican, Congressman Phil Gingrey, 41-41% in the only poll done back in August, 2013 by PPP. The GOP primary is wide open and general election data will be more meaningful when the Republican candidate is known. (Tie goes to incumbent party, GOP.)

Iowa – The Democratic field has been cleared for Congressman Bruce Braley who leads a handful of lesser-known Republicans by between 3-9%, with Matthew Whitaker posing the greatest threat. (No change)

Kentucky – Mitch McConnell has led by 1, 1, and 5 points in the three most recent polls against Democrat Alison Grimes. But he also has his hands full in the Republican primary, where conservative businessman Matt Bevin trails 53-31% but is gaining momentum. (No Change)

Louisiana – Louisiana has a “jungle primary” where multiple candidates from all parties face off in one election. If no candidate receives 50%, the top two go to a runoff. This race seems to be headed there as Landrieu has under 50% against two Republicans, moderate congressman Bill Cassidy and the tea-party endorsed Rob Maness. (No Change)

Michigan – This open Democratic seat has a new front-runner: former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. A January, 2014 poll by Harper Polling had Lynn up 8 points (44-36%) on congressman Gary Peters. A December poll by Democratic firm PPP had her up by 2. Both had her personal favorable ratings way up on Peters. (Flip to R)

Montana – Republican Congressman Steve Daines has leads between 7-15 points, according to a November poll by PPP. Incumbent Democrat Max Baucus is conveniently taking an early retirement and giving the Democratic Governor the opportunity to appoint someone to the seat ahead of the election. Will he appoint presumptive nominee Lt. Governor John Walsh? (Flip to R)

North Carolina – The GOP Primary is loaded with candidates, but State House Speaker Thom Tillis leads the way with 19% in the primary. A January PPP poll has incumbent Kay Hagan trailing all of the mostly unknown Republican challengers by 1-2 points. Not good news for the Democratic incumbent. (Flip to R)

New Hampshire – Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown is looking like the Republican Party’s best bet to unseat Jeanne Shaheen. Brow has been trending up, and a January PPP poll has him within 3, down just 46-43%. (No Change)

South Dakota – Two polls in September and October, 2013 had former Republican Governor Mike Rounds with double-digit leads over businessman Rick Wieland in the open Democratic seat. A poll done by a Welland-affiliated group also had Rounds up by 6 points. (Flip to R)

West Virginia – Jay Rockefeller (D) is finally retiring, leaving the door oper for long-serving congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R). Two Spetember Polls by Harper (R) and PPP (D) had Capito leading Secretary of State Natalie Tenant (D) by roughly 15 points. (Flip to R)