Donald Trump Sees 17-Point Positive Swing in Two Weeks

Alex Swoyer,

Republican nominee Donald Trump gained 17 points in roughly two weeks, according to the Reuters online tracking poll.

On July 14, 2016, Trump was 15 points behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 46.5 percent to 31.5 percent. However as of July 26, 2016, Trump closed that 15 point gap and is now up two points over Clinton, 40.2 percent to 38.5 percent.

The Reuters/IPSOS polling data was fairly consistent during the Republican primaries — keeping Trump in the lead from February through May, which proved to be accurate.

Additionally, IPSOS received a high polling accuracy score — an “A-” — from FiveThirtyEight.

trumpwillwin_small Donald Trump Sees 17-Point Positive Swing in Two Weeks

Poll: If young voters stay home, Hillary loses

Pundits from all sides of the aisle have been saying that the youth vote could mean defeat for Hillary Clinton, an idea furthered by a recent MobOpinions/VoterLabs poll.

Surveying those born between 1981 and 1998, the in-app poll found that Hillary leads Donald Trump 34 percent to 25 percent. Her lead grows to 38 percent to 28 percent when it comes to likely voters.

As large as the millennial demographic is, it’s also one with historically low voter turnout. There’s also a high number of undecided voters who could flip the numbers. “However, with 32.5 percent of all millennials and 23 percent of those identified as likely voters still undecided, ambivalence toward Mrs. Clinton could pave the way for a Trump victory if this group decides to stay home or turn to a 3rd party candidate,” the poll release noted.

Walter Kawecki of VoterLabs spoke of the importance of “delivering the right message through the medium.” Trump is considered the most effective candidate with social media, while Hillary is the worst. Twitter, where Trump has a commanding presence, is only the fourth most popular platform at 9 percent.

“Clearly Facebook is still dominant, but effective use of Snapchat and Instagram could be pivotal,” added Kawecki. “If so, the Trump campaign could have a secret weapon in Ivanka Trump.”

Mitchell Barak, co-founder of MobOpinions, suggested “Bill Clinton can be instrumental in bringing undecided and ‘soft’ Trump millennial supporters to vote for his wife Hillary.” Bill Clinton gave a lengthy speech at the DNC Tuesday night to provide a more human side of his wife.

Barak also compared the results to the Brexit vote. “When we polled millennials in the UK ahead of the Brexit vote, the results indicated that, if millennials had turned out, Remain would have won. This survey shows a similar pattern – unless Hillary Clinton can persuade and turnout millennials, Mr. Trump stands a very good chance of being the next U.S. President,” he said.

Barak’s words ought to serve as a warning to millennial voters to turn to the polls rather than social media on Election Day to complain about the results after the fact, as they did with Brexit.

The poll emphasized that “millennials are Clinton’s to lose.” Other polls have similarly showed her leading Trump with millennials, but not at the level she needs to win the demographic, especially as her lead shrinks.