Telling the History of the United States as it Really Is
Further to my last post (See Below) wondering if Israel might launch a pre-emptive unilateral attack against Iran before the gulf between Israel and the US over Iran’s nuclear program gets to a point of no return, it should be pointed out – as some commentators have – that there is unlikely to be any attack against Iran while the current round of talks between Iran and the so-called P5+1 alliance are still underway. Talks are scheduled to restart on 10 November 2013 after a break that allows the parties to consider their next moves.
Once the talks are over, however, if the outcome of the talks hasn’t satisfied Netanyahu who is demanding that Iran dismantles all of its nuclear facilities, then he might feel that this maybe the only opportunity he’ll have to attack Iran with any hope of the US, no matter how reluctantly, getting on board to help the Israelis in their fight against Iran. Netanyahu may take a chance and attack in the hope that Obama will consider it fait accompli and be left with no option other than to support Israel by launching its own attacks against Iran.
However, if as an outcome of the talks Obama expresses satisfaction with whatever deal they come up with about Iran’s nuclear program and then states that as far as the US is concerned, provided Iran keeps to its end of the deal, the crisis is over, then it’s all over for Netanyahu too – which means Netanyahu will have to act quickly after the talks are concluded if he wants the US to help Israel fight Iran.
WILL ISRAEL STRIKE IRAN BEFORE ISRAELI-U.S. RELATIONS COOL TOO MUCH?
Relations between Israel and the US, according to some observers, are deteriorating rapidly as the US talks with the Iranians over Iran’s nuclear program seem to be gaining ground. < ?xml:namespace prefix ="" "o" />
Netanyahu has been trying to convince the world that the new president of Iran’s fresh and non-confronting approach to the West over sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program are just about buying time which Iran is using to build a nuclear bomb that Netanyahu says will be launched at Israel just as soon as it’s ready.
Netanyahu maintains that he will strike Iran unilaterally if he felt that Iran was getting close to building a bomb. This has put the US on edge and a little worried that Netanyahu may lose patience and go ahead with a unilateral strike against Iran.
I have for years argued that any such strike by Israel against Iran could not possibly be wholly ‘unilateral’ and that there must be some level of connivance with the US before such a strike could be carried out. However, Israel may feel they are able to risk launching an initial unilateral attack against Iran in the hope that, after launching such an attack, the US would feel obligated – no matter how begrudgingly – to immediately come to Israel’s aid. It is now getting to the point where Israel may feel that, if they leave it any longer, the divide between them and the US may be so wide that such help from the US may not be forthcoming.
Obama has, despite his coolness to Netanyahu of late, said that he has ‘Israel’s back’. Short of actually announcing that the US will not come to Israel’s aid if Israel attacks Iran unilaterally, the US would, I believe, nonetheless go into bat for the Israelis after the Israelis launched the initial strike. Certainly, the US already has its military in place in the Persian Gulf for just such an operation.
It should be made clear though, that once a strike is launched, there will be no turning back. It will not simply be a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities; it will be in pursuit of nothing less than regime change. And that will be achieved without invasion and by use strategic bombing until Iran capitulates.