Hillary can put the race away with big Empire State win; Trump can’t lose.
New York is a critical state for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Both the GOP and the Democratic front-runner call the Empire State their home and to lose there could seriously damage their prospects.
The two Teflon candidates have been able to weather many storms throughout the 2016 presidential cycle and have always come out on top — but the momentum may be shifting.
As Clinton faces new reports about the FBI investigation into her email, Trump is plagued by his own gaffes regarding abortion, nuclear weapons, and more. Then on Tuesday, both candidates lost the battleground state of Wisconsin, putting a halt on their delegate hunt.
The New York primary on April 19 boasts 95 delegates for the Republican victor and 247 delegates for the Democratic winner — both amounts large enough to be vital in the delegate count.
|New York GOP Delegates|
|New York Democratic Delegates|
|Total GOP Delegate Count|
|Needed for nomination||1237|
|Total DEM Delegate Count|
|Needed for nomination||2383|
Current polling from CBS News/YouGov has Clinton leading Sen. Bernie Sanders 53 to 43 percent — showing that Sanders can be competitive in the Empire State. What’s more, both Democratic candidates have agreed to debate one another in Brooklyn prior to the primary, a potential wildcard for Hillary.
There is a wider margin in the Republican presidential field. According to polling from CBS News/YouGov, Trump leads the pack with 52 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz with 21 percent and Gov. John Kasich with 20 percent.
The rules are tricky, however, for delegate acquisition in the Republican primary. Delegates are awarded on a district-by-district basis with three delegates awarded in each of the 27 congressional districts — totaling 81. In order to win the full three delegates in each district, a candidate needs to receive more than 50 percent of the vote. But if no one gets more than 50 percent of the vote in a district and more than one candidate receives 20 percent or more — then the candidate who finishes first in that district gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one.
Also, there are 14 at-large delegates that are awarded. If a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, then that candidate receives them all — but if no one gets 50 percent, then any candidate who receives 20 percent or more statewide is awarded at-large delegates on a proportional basis.
For the Democrats, it’s much of the same. The delegates are awarded proportionally on a statewide and district level — but a 15 percent threshold is necessary to be eligible to receive delegates.
With so much at stake on both sides of the aisle, the race is on to win the Empire State — a state that has usually had little-to-no relevance in electoral politics.