A New YouGov/CBS poll shows Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump leading Sen. Ted Cruz by 18 points, 49-31, ahead of the upcoming California primary. Ohio governor John Kasich clocked in at 16 percent.
The polls indicates a wider lead for Trump over Cruz than in other recent polls, and suggests that Trump could win the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination with a big enough win in California.
The YouGov/CBS poll found that among likely Republican voters, Trump has 49 percent support compared with Cruz who received 31 percent among registered voters in the Golden State.
The likelihood of a contested convention has strengthened and will culminate with the results coming out of California’s June 7 primary. However, in order for Trump to have a realistic shot at garnering all the necessary delegates before the convention, he would need to sweep New York by winning the state overall and also amassing first place in nearly all the congressional districts there.
The same poll was conducted in New York and Pennsylvania. It projects Trump with 53 percent of votes in New York, and Cruz and Kasich neck-and-neck for second place, trailing Trump with 21 percent and 19 percent each.
The new YouGov/CBS poll for California was conducted among 2,403 registered voters between April 13 – April 15, and has a 2.7 precent margin of error.
Among those polled, 85 percent stated that they “definitely will vote” in the upcoming primary. Within that sample group, 53 percent identified as Democrats while 36 percent identified as Republicans, with 7 percent saying they were “neither” and 4 percent saying they did not know with which party they were registered.
Among Democratic voters, 52 percent said they were more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton and 40 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders in the California primary.