“From her high in the polls a week or two ago, Clinton’s leads in a number of critical battleground states have collapsed or evaporated entirely. The election could come down to one state with four electoral college votes that flips from Clinton to Donald Trump and, boom: A 269-269 electoral college tie, and a vote by the House of Representatives to decide on the next president — who, given the composition of the House, would almost certainly be Donald Trump.”
“On Thursday, that Clinton state with four electoral college votes raised its hand. Hi, New Hampshire! Two new polls, from Boston Globe-Suffolk University and WBUR-MassInc put the Granite State at a virtual tie, with the continuing trend in the state away from Clinton. That’s Trump’s 269th electoral college vote. Or, really, his 270th: Polling in Maine’s second congressional district (which allocates one electoral college vote separately) has Trump in the lead. He wins the states he holds now and that one in Maine? President Donald J. Trump.
The trend is stark for Team Clinton. As the national race has tightened, so has the race in a number of big states.”
“Gone are the days when we talked about Clinton maybe winning Georgia or Texas or Trump watching Utah go third-party. (A new poll there shows him with a healthy lead.)
There have been moments in the past when Trump’s closed the gap in models put together by sites like FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times. But those moments were usually with a lot more runway between the moment and Election Day. There were still conventions or debates. This moment is different.”
“But a state or two goes his way? If the polls keep heading in his direction for the next five days, even a relatively minor amount? The incoming president Barack Obama congratulates on the west front steps of the Capitol in January will be a certain businessman from New York.”