Trump’s N.Y. Question Is Size of Likely Win #Trump2016

With a plethora of polls showing Donald Trump handily winning N.Y., the challenge facing him is to maximize his vote total to achieve a massive delegate haul and regain momentum in the GOP presidential race.

  • If Trump’s vote tops 50%, he’ll gain all 14 statewide delegates
    • And the larger his statewide total, the more likely he’ll be in position to capture the lion’s share of the 3 delegates at stake in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts
  • The New York Times says that if Trump cleared 50% statewide, he’d win at least 75 of the 95 delegates available
    • NYT breaks down Trump’s chances in different congressional districts, concluding he looks strong in upstate N.Y. and Long Island, but may face roadblocks in Manhattan
  • A Siena College N.Y. poll released today put Trump right at 50%; other recent surveys polls have his support higher
    • John Kasich has emerged as the rival with the best chance of keeping Trump below 50%—the Siena survey shows the Ohio governor with 27% support
    • Ted Cruz at 17%trumpinny_small Trump's N.Y. Question Is Size of Likely Win #Trump2016

      FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver details a state-by-state road map of Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates

      • Silver says the most likely outcome is that Trump ends up with 1,155 delegates
      • Says he’d have to win almost everything in the remaining Northeast primaries, as well as in Ind., and take Calif. by a solid margin to reach 1,237

      Cruz is “is close to ensuring” that Trump can’t win the GOP nomination on a 2nd ballot at the party’s July convention, according to a Washington Post analysis

      • The Texas Sen. stands to add at least 130 votes to his column on 2nd ballot
      • Trump adviser Paul Manafort responded: “There’s not going to be a second ballot”