Trump’s Odds of Winning Skyrocketing
Hillary Clinton for President Campaign Manager Robby Mook blasted out an email alerting supporters that their estimate of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election rose sharply from as low as 10 percent to now as high as 40.
The message as printed in the Washington Examiner reads:
In the last week or so, a new polling trend has emerged: Trump’s path to the presidency is no longer a pipe dream — it is clear and it is real.
Trump has more and more ways he can get to 270 electoral votes — that should give all of us pause. Chip in for the first time today to help us stop him and reach our goal of 2.5 million donors by the end of the month — we’ll send you a free sticker to say thanks.
He has made serious gains in states like New Hampshire and Colorado — places where we once held double-digit advantages. And he’s now leading polling averages in several key states, including Florida and Ohio.
A month ago, Trump had maybe a 10 or 20 percent chance of winning this election. Today, in most models, his odds have risen to 30 or 40 percent.
I realize that some people might have a higher tolerance for risk than others. But a 40 percent chance of Donald Trump in the White House should be too high for anyone.
So all of us who care about the future of our country need to commit to do something about it right now.
And the best thing you can do? Invest in this campaign so we can keep making our case to anyone who is still undecided in this election. So that we can put more organizers on the ground to register voters who share our values — and make sure they cast their ballots on Election Day:
Thank you,
Robby
Robby Mook
Campaign Manager
Hillary for America
The Team Hillary estimate is on par with one from Citigroup that also gives Trump 40 percent odds to win. MarketWatch reported that just a week prior Citi analysts pegged a Clinton win at 65 percent, meaning that in a week their estimate drops Clinton five percentage points. Citi analysts pointed to an “enthusiasm gap” problem that could continue to dog Clinton in these final days if her supporters aren’t motivated to actually get out and vote.
A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls puts Trump and Clinton neck and neck, Clinton holding less than a one percent lead on rival Trump, 44.9 percent to 44. A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll released Sunday showed Trump up 47.7 percent over Clinton at 41 percent.
Follow Michelle Moons on Twitter @MichelleDiana