Election 2018: Who Will Win Control of Congress?
Election 2016 was a nail-biter for us. Would Crooked Hillary prevail and drag the United States into a perverted Dark Ages of progressive tyranny? Or would Trump prevail, and the rest of the country hold its breath for the unexpected? Trump’s administration has been unexpected … and wonderful.
Republican pollsters also worried that Trump would face a frustrating Democratic Congress, but Republicans prevailed.
For Election 2018, the incredible, diminishing Democratic Party is heading headfirst into the wood chipper. Democrats will not take back the House. Not going to happen. The DCCC is targeting California, where they will spend big money to knock out 7 House reps that voted to repeal Obamacare. Yes, Hillary Clinton carried those districts in 2016, but many by slim margins. The incumbents survived, and many by strong margins (except Darrell Issa, who needs to stay true to conservative principles).
With Dems wasting multi-millions in California’s overpriced media markets, expect other swing seat targets to suffer. The Democratic Party is also losing their faithful progressives, who are still burning over Bernie Sanders. Anti-Trump hate isn’t bringing in campaign cash for the DNC, either.
The Democrats will not win the US Senate, either. With 33 seats up for grabs, Democrats must defend 23 of their own, plus the two liberal Independent seats in New England. For Republicans, they must defend only 8, and only one Senator, Dean Heller, represents a state which Obama and Hillary carried. In spite of the national dynamics, Heller has handled himself pretty well. Jeff Flake is the only other vulnerable incumbent, but from the right. He has been very squishy on immigration. That’s the do-or-die issue for Republicans, especially in a border state like Arizona. I submit that Flake faces greater trouble, but that’s about it.
Now, let’s look at the Democratic targets. Five incumbents represent states which Romney and Trump won:
1. Heidi Heitkamp. Unsurprisingly, in this deep red state Heitkamp has not declared her re-election plans. She’s gone.
2. Joe Manchin. This Democrat in Name Only has helped more than hindered Trump’s agenda on coal, guns, and court nominations. He either loses, or will tilt more toward the GOP.
3. Joe Donnelly. He won only because the 2012 Republican challenger was ill prepared for prime-time. He’s toast.
4. Jon Tester. The NRA is targeting this liberal for voting against Gorsuch. Republicans have won more statewide races lately in Montana. Tester presided over the Democrats’ uninspiring results in 2016. He will find himself out of a job in 2018.
5. Claire McCaskill. A GOP trifecta governs the state. Senator Roy Blunt survived a close challenge in 2016. A stable, effective challenger should be showing McCaskill the door in the Show Me State.
Yes, these predictions are early, and anything can upend the otherwise developing narrative of GOP strength; but with all GOP forces lining up as they should, watch these five tumble into the GOP column.
What about the Democratic incumbents in states that Trump won, but not Romney?
1. Bob Casey. The Pennsylvania Republican Party is on a roll. Their registration has finally passed the Democratic Party. The state has not only become more Republican, but more conservative. The GOP legislative numbers have soared into supermajority status. The Democratic governor Tom Wolf is the most liberal in the country, and just as out of touch, too. Pat Toomey survived another very close challenge in election 2016. Pennsylvania Republicans are competing everywhere even deeply blue Philadelphia. Casey will falter in 2018.
2. Sherrod Brown. This male version of Elizabeth Warren is watching Ohio go red right under his feet. The state legislature is a GOP trifecta, and Kasich’s dithering has not dampened conservatives’ spirits. The last US Senate contest featured incumbent Rob Portman stomping a relatively well-known Democratic challenger by double digits. Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel challenged Sherrod in 2012. Today, he is already ahead of Brown in three polls. Brown is going down.
3. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. The Dairy State has witnessed the most profound GOP transformation of all. Governor Scott Walker and Republican majorities in both state houses have turned the birthplace of the Progressive Party into a Republican winter wonderland. Tammy is extremely liberal in a state that retains its down-to-earth Midwestern charm. With a number of high-class Republican contenders lining up, expect a real fight here, and a stable GOP contender eking out a close win.
4. Debbie Stabenow. Michigan has turned Republican, too. Unfortunately, Election 2014 should have witnessed Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land snatching an open seat. The GOP brand is growing, but Stabenow has survived two major challenges. This race remains a tough one for the GOP to win. If Stabenow retires, a well-known GOP face could capture the seat. If she runs for re-election, forget about it.
5. Bill Nelson. He survived a lukewarm challenger in 2012. If he retires, Florida is in play. If not, like Michigan, Nelson will carry the day. The Florida GOP is gaining ground, but Democrats still win House seats in Presidential years, which means that the GOP has work to do.
But Republicans were confident about 2012, and Democrats fared better, right? New factors tilt the map in Republicans’ favor. The liberal mainstream media is not as influential. The Democratic infighting has hit such a fevered pitch, that even the diminishing media cannot ignore it.
Post-Obama, the Democratic Party is doubling down on their anti-American, communistic impulses. The growing Democratic insanity will further dampen their chances. Look at California, where the state assembly just voted to allow Communists to serve openly in state government. Trump will continue his victories, propping up GOP chances nationwide. Trump is no longer the dubious quantity which Republicans—both candidates and voters—had feared and shunned in 2016. Districts with a close margin of victory will not be so close next year. The lower turnout in mid-term elections will benefit Republicans, too.
Election 2018: Republicans will hold Congress, and gain 8 US Senate seats, winning their first supermajority since Reconstruction.
