Trump Retakes Lead in Prediction Markets, Rubio Sinks on New Hampshire Results
Within an hour of the last New Hampshire polls closing, billionaire Donald Trump’s win sent his odds of becoming the Republican nominee soaring on prediction markets that allow political observers to bet on electoral outcomes. On PredictWise, Trump climbed from 31 percent at 4 p.m. ET to 43 percent at 9 p.m. ET; on Pivit he rose from 28 percent to 36 percent.
Over that same period, Florida Senator Marco Rubio went from around a 40 percent probability of winning the GOP nomination—he’d been the favorite since his third-place finish in Iowa last week—to 25 percent or less on both PredictWise and Pivit. Rubio’s chances of electoral victory in South Carolina and Nevada also took a hit.
Meanwhile, the Democratic winner, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, barely saw his chances of winning that party’s nomination budge (he went from 18 percent to 19 percent on PredictWise, and 24 percent to 25 percent on Pivit) despite beating Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by a wide margin.
Trump Comments after Big Win
“New Hampshire, we love you, we’re going to be back a lot,” Donald Trump says in speech to supporters after winning N.H. primary.
- Hailing campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, Trump says “does Corey have a ground game or what?”
- “We learned a lot about ground games in one week, let me tell you that”
- NOTE: Trump finished 2nd in Iowa caucuses last week after leading in polls; analysts said he suffered in part from insufficient organization in state
- Says Bernie Sanders, who won N.H. Democratic presidential primary, “wants to give away our country”
- “We’re not going to let that happen”
- Trump says as president, U.S. is “going to make great trade deals, we’re going to rebuild our military”
- “It’s going to be so big, so strong, nobody is going to mess with us”
- “I’m going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created,” Trump says
- Says jobless rate is not 5%, but “could be as high as 30%”
