Primary Updates: New Hampshire’s Voters Have Their Say

Most polls close at 7pm ET, and results are likely to come in shortly afterward.

• The Democratic contest may be over quickly, with Vt. Sen. Bernie Sanders having staked out a solid lead in the polls in his neighboring state for months
  • Hillary Clinton has lowered expectations in N.H.; if she’s able to keep Sanders’ margin over her to single digits, her campaign will see that as a hopeful sign as the nomination battle moves to turf that should be more hospitable to her
• Among Republicans, Donald Trump has dominated the polls in N.H. even longer than Sanders; again, a quick call for him by the networks may be in the offing
  • In another main GOP storyline, the presidential futures of John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie depend on today’s outcome
  • The trio of current or former governors, who each claimed less then 3% of the vote in last week’s Iowa caucuses, each need to post a strong showing in N.H. to ensure their political viability; Kasich in particular is hoping for a 2nd-place finish
  • Bloomberg’s Ben Brody reports that Kasich could benefit from the independent voters in N.H., a block that comprises nearly half of the voters
• Also in the spotlight is Marco Rubio, who rode into N.H. with a post-Iowa bounce; if that fades following his widely panned performance in last Saturday night’s debate, he’ll face doubts about whether he’s best equipped to consolidate the various GOP factions

ON THE TRAIL

• Trump wrapped up his N.H. campaign mincing no words, calling Clinton “in a certain way evil,” and Cruz “nasty,” in interview on MSNBC
  • Trump also says Bush is a “loser,” Rubio “confused”
  • On CNN, he says he would welcome a presidential bid — presumably as an independent — by former N.Y. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, founder/majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP
  • On Fox, Trump says that repeating protester’s vulgar comments about Ted Cruz was “like a retweet”
  • In separate NBC interview, he says he wouldn’t use vulgar term if he winds presidency
• Ben Carson says in Fox Business Network interview he’s open to being Trump’s vice president
• POLLS
• Trump has a 75% chance of winning N.H. GOP primary, FiveThirtyEight said in its final polls-only prediction prior to tonight’s tally
  • FiveThirtyEight gives Sanders 99% of winning on Democratic side
• N.H.: Sanders widens his lead over Clinton in CNN-WMUR tracking poll conducted Feb. 4-8
  • Sanders gets 61% support; Clinton at 35%
  • Same poll shows Trump lead narrowing slightly; he gets 31%, while Rubio 2nd with 17%

• Clinton airs new ad in S.C., saying U.S needs to face up to “hard truth” of systemic racism
  • “Something is just fundamentally broken when African Americans are more likely to be arrested by police and sentenced to longer prison terms for doing the same things that whites do”
  • Clinton calls for more investment in education, health care, jobs to counter generations of neglect
• Bush released ad contrasting his policies against Kasich’s; spot depicts Ohio gov. as liberal in his views
• Bush and his allies have spent more than his rivals on ads in S.C., Politico reports
  • Pro-Bush super-PAC Right to Rise USA has spent $10.3 million; Rubio and his backers are next with $9.4 million in combined ad spending
• Carly Fiorina reserved $1m for ad in Nevada next week, her campaign manager Frank Sadler says in tweet
  • In voiceover Fiorina, says, “We need a fearless fighter in the White House”

FUNDRAISING

• Trump tells MSNBC his campaign is at least $45m under budget
  • Says he has spent “$12 million or $15 million, and most of it is paying myself back for my airplane. I haven’t had to do a lot of advertising”
• Clinton campaign holding two fundraisers in Mexico tomorrow, the Hill reports
  • Wal-Mart lobbyist Ivan Zapien co-hosting one fundraiser with Clinton campaign treasurer Jose Villarreal

WALL STREET

• Clinton praised Goldman Sachs in Oct. 2013 for raising capital and helping create jobs, Politico reported, citing an unidentified person who watched private speech she gave for which co. paid her $225,000
  • At another speech to Goldman and its clients in 2013, Clinton said it wasn’t just banks that caused financial crisis, according to Politico
  • Clinton reportedly said it was worth looking at Dodd-Frank law to see what was working/what wasn’t

ETC.

• Kasich edges out Trump 3 votes to 2 in first N.H. results, AP reports
  • Sanders got all 4 Democratic votes in Dixville Notch, where town’s 9 voters have tradition of casting ballots right after midnight
• Former N.H. Gov. John Sununu says single-digit victory by Trump in his state would be “meaningless”
  • “It won’t mean much,” Sununu says at Bloomberg Politics breakfast in Manchester, N.H.
  • If Trump is GOP nominee, contested congressional Republicans who are up for re-election this year “all lose,” Sununu says
  • Says he expects high turnout in primary vote; sees 2/3 of registered voters participating
• Former N.H. GOP Sen. Judd Gregg at same breakfast says Kasich is “clearly going to exceed expectations in N.H.”